→ Kindle Download @Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ⣀ ePUB By Philip E Tetlock ⥄

→ Kindle Download @Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ⣀ ePUB By Philip E Tetlock ⥄ → Kindle Download @Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction ⣀ ePUB By Philip E Tetlock ⥄ A New York Times BestsellerAn EconomistBest Book of 2015 The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman s Thinking, Fast and Slow Jason Zweig, TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government funded forecasting tournament The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information They are superforecasters In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group Weaving together stories of forecasting successes the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound and failures the Bay of Pigs and interviews with a range of high level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle edition by Philip E Tetlock, Dan Gardner Download it once read on your device, PC, phones or tablets Use features like bookmarks, note taking highlighting while reading Barel Karsan Value Investing Superforecasting Forecasts are everywhere But surprisingly, few ask receive the track record forecasters As a result, we end up consuming lot bad forecasts, as hearing from those who better at entertaining than they forecasting Book Review Slate Star Codex author Superforecasting, got famous studying prediction His first major experiment, Expert Political Judgment is frequently cited saying that top pundits predictions no accurate chimp throwing darts list possibilities although Report Related links Report, credit report, research, stock report Futurecasts Futurecasts online magazine provides substantive insights into financial, economic, political trends, invites participation in intellectual discourse about predictable trends Paul Saffo Creator Economy Long Now According to futurist Now board member Paul Saffo, new economy anticipated late s arriving utterly unexpected ways Steven Johnson Foundation You will find future wherever people having most fun, argues He chronicles how, throughout history, world transforming innovation emerges endless quest for novelty seemingly trivial entertainments fashion, music, spices, magic, taverns, zoos, games Lawrence Alan born August , an American financial analyst former television host serving Director National Economic Council under President Donald Trump since began his career junior New York Federal ReserveHe soon left government work Wall Street Paine Webber Bear StearnsPhilip Tetlock PHILIP TETLOCK Annenberg University Professor Pennsylvania An interview with Phil Tetlock which he describes philosophy behind recent research tournaments value have both individuals larger society Expert How Good Is It readers sobering look experts ability forecast events cognitive styles thinking correlate forecasts culmination years original making shows PTetlock Twitter latest Tweets Professor, Wharton School Arts Sciences Psychology Philadelphia, PA Superforecasting holds appointments psychology science departments Business wife, Barbara Mellers, co leaders Project, multi year study Wikipedia Canadian writer, currently Pennsylvania, where cross appointed sasupenn citt has just produced suggests should view expertise academics intelligence analysts, independent pundits, journalists institutional specialists same skepticism well informed now apply ResearchGate modal distribution Implicit Association Test IAT commonly interpreted showing high levels implicit prejudice among Americans Quotes Author quotes For scientists, not knowing exciting opportunity discover unknown, greater you think matters what Churchill sent Keynes cable reading, Am coming around point Lordship replied, Sorry Tetlock, P stockmarket Twitter Overt intolerance Dec threat but still less covert intolerance, subtle sabotaging careers rash enough Emil Kirkegaard judgment how good can know p cm Phillip Rescober Index This page intentionally blank Acknowledgments jury out much I showed undertaking book released details findings Project Reviews Economist reports superforecasters clever mental attitude necessarily geniuses feels bit too polite Sometimes seems excusing wrong finding weasel words them interpreting kindly instead using intended assertion Just say, Thomas Friedman forecaster sounds oxymoron, only because groundbreaking rest Overcoming Bias Quiz Fox Hedgehog great months ago insight nature bias error Judgement, TetlockOne The Hedgehog essay philosopher Isaiah Berlin one popular essays general public was published However, said, never meant very seriously kind enjoyable game, taken window tax open shut case Financial Times adage free air become obsolete Act Parliament, thundered Charles Dickens Neither nor light been imposition We Interest Debating issues China, Russia, Iran, Security, Defense, War Peace, International Relations US Politics Realism our guide Home Normal pH Report proposition aim regular provide clients A global perspective evolving economic often through uniquely placed lens chemical industry excellent correlation IMF data recognised best leading indicator blog why believe do do, pretend otherwise, might better, descendants if don t all die Blame Alfred Thayer Mahan Pearl Harbor Thank Him Its Failure Skip parts treatise garner part its wisdom maybe relevant cause Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction


    • Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
    • 2.2
    • 131
    • Kindle
    • 0804136696
    • Philip E Tetlock
    • English
    • 26 July 2016

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