⤐ Download Format Kindle @The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going ⧀ Author George Friedman 䔔

⤐ Download  Format Kindle @The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going ⧀ Author George Friedman 䔔 ⤐ Download Format Kindle @The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going ⧀ Author George Friedman 䔔 INTRODUCTION Rebalancing America A century is about events A decade is about people I wrote The Next 100 Years to explore the impersonal forces that shape history in the long run, but human beings dont live in the long run We live in the much shorter span in which our lives are shaped not so much by vast historical trends but by the specific decisions of specific individuals This book is about the short run of the next ten years the specific realities to be faced, the specific decisions to be made, and the likely consequences of those decisions Most people think that the longer the time frame, the unpredictable the future I take the opposite view Individual actions are the hardest thing to predict In the course of a century, so many individual decisions are made that no single one of them is ever critical Each decision is lost in the torrent of judgments that make up a century But in the shorter time frame of a decade, individual decisions made by individual people, particularly those with political power, can matter enormously What I wrote in The Next 100 Years is the frame for understanding this decade But it is only the frame Forecasting a century is the art of recognizing the impossible, then eliminating from consideration all the events that, at least logically, arent going to happen The reason is, as Sherlock Holmes put it, When you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth It is always possible that a leader will do something unexpectedly foolish or brilliant, which is why forecasting is best left to the long run, the span over which individual decisions dont carry so much weight But having forecast for the long run, you can reel back your scenario and try to see how it plays out in, say, a decade What makes this time frame interesting is that it is sufficiently long for the larger, impersonal forces to be at play but short enough for the individual decisions of individual leaders to skew outcomes that otherwise might seem inevitable A decade is the point at which history and statesmanship meet, and a span in which policies still matter I am not normally someone who gets involved in policy debates Im interested in what will happen than in what I want to see happen But within the span of a decade, events that may not matter in the long run may still affect us personally and deeply They also can have real meaning in defining which path we take into the future This book is therefore both a forecast and a discussion of the policies that ought to be followed We begin with the United States for the same reason that a study of 1910 would have to begin with Britain Whatever the future might hold, the global system today pivots around the United States, just as Britain was the pivotal point in the years leading up to World War I In The Next 100 Years, I wrote about the long term power of the United States In this book, I have to write about American weaknesses, which, I think, are not problems in the long run time will take care of most of these But because you and I dont live in the long run, for us these problems are very real Most are rooted in structural imbalances that require solutions Some are problems of leadership, because, as I said at the outset, a decade is about people This discussion of problems and people is particularly urgent at this introduction moment In the first decade after the United States became the sole global power, the world was, compared to other eras, relatively tranquil In terms of genuine security issues for the United States, Baghdad and the Balkans were nuisances, not threats The United States had no need for strategy in a world that appeared to have accepted American leadership without complaint Ten years later, September 11 brought that illusion crashing to the ground The world was dangerous than we imagined, but the options seemed fewer as well The United States did not craft a global strategy in response Instead, it developed a narrowly focused politico military strategy designed to defeat terrorism, almost to the exclusion of all else Now that decade is coming to an end as well, and the search is under way for an exit from Iraq, from Afghanistan, and indeed from the world that began when those hijacked airliners smashed into buildings in New York and Washington The impulse of the United States is always to withdraw from the world, savoring the pleasures of a secure homeland protected by the buffer of wide oceans on either side But the homeland is not secure, either from terrorists or from the ambitions of nation states that see the United States as both dangerous and unpredictable Under both President Bush and President Obama, the United States has lost sight of the long term strategy that served it well for most of the last century Instead, recent presidents have gone off on ad hoc adventures They have set unattainable goals because they have framed the issues incorrectly, as if they believed their own rhetoric As a result, the United States has overextended its ability to project its power around the world, which has allowed even minor players to be the tail that wags the dog The overriding necessity for American policy in the decade to come is a return to the balanced, global strategy that the United States learned from the example of ancient Rome and from the Britain of a hundred years ago These old school imperialists didnt rule by main force Instead, they maintained their dominance by setting regional players against each other and keeping these players in opposition to others who might also instigate resistance They maintained the balance of power, using these opposing forces to cancel each other out while securing the broader interests of the empire They also kept their client states bound together by economic interest and diplomacy, which is not to say the routine courtesies between nations but the subtle manipulation that causes neighbors and fellow clients to distrust each other than they distrust the imperial powers Direct intervention relying on the empires own troops was a distant, last resort Adhering to this strategy, the United States intervened in World War I only when the standoff among European powers was failing, and only when it appeared that the Germans, with Russia collapsing in the east, might actually overwhelm the English and French in the west When the fighting stopped, the United States helped forge a peace treaty that prevented France from dominating postwar Europe During the early days of World War II, the United States stayed out of direct engagement as long as it could, supporting the British in their efforts to fend off the Germans in the west while encouraging the Soviets to bleed the Germans in the east Afterward, the United States devised a balance of power strategy to prevent the Soviet Union from dominating Western Europe, the Middle East, and ultimately China Throughout the long span from the first appearance of the Iron Curtain to the end of the Cold War, this U.S strategy of distraction and manipulation was rational, coherent, and effectively devious Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, however, the United States shifted from a strategy focused on trying to contain major powers to an unfocused attempt to contain potential regional hegemons when their behavior offended American sensibilities In the period from 1991 to 2001, the United States invaded or intervened in five countriesKuwait, Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Yugoslaviawhich was an extraordinary tempo of military operations At times, American strategy seemed to be driven by humanitarian concerns, although the goal was not always clear In what sense, for example, was the 1994 invasion of Haiti in the national interest But the United States had an enormous reservoir of power in the 1990s, which gave it ample room for maneuver, as well as room for indulging its ideological whims When you are overwhelmingly dominant, you dont have to operate with a surgeons precision Nor did the United States, when dealing with potential regional hegemons, have to win, in the sense of defeating an enemy army and occupying its homeland From a military point of view, U.S incursions during the 1990s were spoiling attacks, the immediate goal being to plunge an aspiring regional power into chaos, forcing it to deal with regional and internal threats at a time and place of American choosing rather than allowing it to develop and confront the United States on the smaller nations own schedule After September 11, 2001, a United States newly obsessed with terrorism became even disoriented, losing sight of its long term strategic principles altogether As an alternative, it created a new but unattainable strategic goal, which was the elimination of the terrorist threat The principal source of that threat, al Qaeda, had given itself an unlikely but not inconceivable objective, which was to re create the Islamic caliphate, the theocracy that was established by Muhammad in the seventh century and that persisted in one form or another until the fall of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I Al Qaedas strategy was to overthrow Muslim governments that it regarded as insufficiently Islamic, which it sought to do by fomenting popular uprisings in those countries From al Qaedas point of view, the reason that the Islamic masses remained downtrodden was fear of their governments, which was in turn based on a sense that the United States, their governments patron, could not be challenged To free the masses from their intimidation, al Qaeda felt that it had to demonstrate that the United States was not as powerful as it appearedthat it was in fact vulnerable to even a small group of Muslims, provided that PRAISE FOR GEORGE FRIEDMAN There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball New York Times Magazine The Next Decade Empire and Republic in a Changing World The George Friedman on FREE shipping qualifying offers author of the acclaimed New York Times bestseller Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen next decade imminent events challenges that will test America world Where We ve Been re Going Kindle edition by Download it once read your device, PC, phones or tablets Use features like bookmarks, note taking highlighting while reading Best Investment Ideas For Business Insider REUTERS Gopal Chitrakar Most agree we have witnessed end massive, three bull market bonds Asia to Add , Centimillionaires Over Decade Asia Chart Week is weekly Visual Capitalist feature Fridays should speculator go make big Back old days, plan was follow gold rushes M Perfect That Will Dominate Link Dividend Sensei s original article Reasons M Could Crush Market Interview notes Aristocrat Ten Best Green Jobs for Fast Company Massive investments clean energy promise keep farmers, urban planners, green tech entrepreneurs business This guide sustainability focused career paths Schools Prepare yourself fastest growing jobs Get ahead game education training so you ready best Booming Industries Computer programming still booming flickr blmurch A ago, Google had not yet gone public, Affordable Care Act wasn t law, no one saw data coming job entirely Outlook Unconventional Gas OGJ Article FINAL JAFC July Outlook Vello Kuuskraa, Michael L Godec Scott R Reeves Labor Costs Skyrocket Labor With talent shortage only expected worsen, companies pay bucks hire retain top Executive Order Planning Federal Sustainability page contains an overview Executive which introduces new requirements expands upon established EO Energy Policy Independence Security EISA Futurists On What To Expect In HuffPost May F rom smartphone apps can do seemingly everything driverless cars eerily humanlike robots, past has seen dramatic advances science technologyWhat amazing Here are BabyNameWizard up baby boy namesGeopolitics Geopolitical Futures Keeping future December Russia needs lever negotiate sanctions, Kerch Strait could be just ticket George Stratfor founded Stratfor Today, leads field global consulting, providing analysis individuals, organizations governments He left company Dr received Bachelor degree from City College internationally recognized forecaster strategist international affairs Founder Chairman Futures, online publication analyzes predicts system Author Years Chief Officer founder STRATFOR Since driven strategic vision guiding prominence China president may weaker than he Need rein Chinese diplomats speaks volumes about Xi power, writes Wikipedia Hungarian Gyrgy, born February US forecaster, affairsHe chairman forecasts course Prior founding Stratfor, private intelligence Forecast st Century book FriedmanIn book, attempts predict major trends century also speculates changes technology culture take place during this period War III History Smithsonian holds doctorate government Cornell University chief executive consulting firm Austin, Texas His most recent Attack North Korea Is Imminent preparing attack Korea, according setting stage difficult, messy war with potentially catastrophic consequences Speaking Monday rapt audience at Strategic Conference Orlando, friedman interview YouTube Nov forecast p Duration Monthly Video views GeorgeFriedman Twitter latest Tweets Leading GPFutures Flashpoints, TheNextYears TX geopoliticalfutures dedicated explaining Friedman, Europe Destined Conflict Feb Chicago Council Global Affairs CEO present discussion emerging crisis Trump Be Kicked Out White discusses legacy Donald J series, Ask Right Questions, presented Brain Bar focus observers Jinping ascension dictator as sign national strength But I see things differently chagrin even some members Intelligence Platform Globally engaged individuals join Worldview objective reveals underlying significance implications Century predicting inherent flashpoints smoldering beneath House Wikiquote American writer, STRATFOR YouTube Conscious Interstate warfare thankfully unusual occurrence day Turkey Coup Dashes Hopes Aug police APC drives Kizilay Square poster President Recep Tayyip Erdogan background Ankara, Turkey, Thursday, Election Less Critical Than You Think party conventions over, voters waking what call important presidential election our lifetime Yet expert says, nearly many think george friedman Visit Mexico Was Win democratic convention, been behind Hillary Clinton polls five points solid base % But, must move win popular vote eke out electoral Crisis Chaos Are Moving Toward III Register below watch claim free copy eye opening research report, Exposure European Financial Crisis said Sam Raimi Direct Warner Bros Collider Sam near film inspiration non fiction seller Quotes quotes Geo Politics, nation permanent allies enemies, interests Anger does history Got Edge Single spoke telephone Taiwan, causing deep upset It counter understanding since Richard Nixon opened door deal Germany rising German Chancellor Angela Merkel EU struggling maintain order, georgefriedman Allow us introduce ourselves Qapital banking experience designed financial well being Keep happy saving, spending, investing mindfully Hornfischer Literary Management leading Dubbed Barron shadow CIA, subscribers counts corporations, news entities among its clients H Fordham principal Consulting, LLC, advice arbitration mediation general FINRA dispute resolution forum particular former Vice Dispute Resolution Industry Regulatory Authority The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going


    • The Next Decade: Where We've Been . . . and Where We're Going
    • 4.5
    • 871
    • Format Kindle
    • 272 pages
    • George Friedman
    • Anglais
    • 21 February 2017

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